The implications of the Closure of the Hormuz Strait on Global Food Security - An informative session report

A system under strain

Ivo Demmers, Executive Director of the NFP opened the session with the recognition that this crisis is not happening in isolation. Recent years have been marked by consecutive shocks—from COVID-19 to the war in Ukraine—highlighting how interconnected and exposed global food systems have become. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was introduced as another major disruption, with far-reaching implications due to its critical role in global flows of energy, fertilisers, and trade.

From the audience a mixed picture emerged. Some already see early impacts in their work, while others have yet to notice direct effects. This set the stage for a deeper exploration of what may still lie ahead.

Initial reflections from Timmo Gasbeek, Policy Coordinating Officer at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Hillefien Strijland, Coordinator for the consequences of the war in Ukraine and Iran at the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature, further grounded the discussion in both immediate concerns and longer-term risks. Both ministries stressed that the Strait of Hormuz disruption should not be viewed only as an energy shock. They highlighted the risk of longer-term food security impacts through fertilizer shortages, disrupted trade and logistics, and lower agricultural production, and called for continued monitoring, cross-sector analysis, and timely response.

Together, these perspectives set the scene for a discussion focused not only on current developments, but also on how interconnected pressures, from energy to climate, may shape food security outcomes in the months and years ahead.

A global perspective, insights of current data

In his video message Maximo Torero, Chief economist at FAO warned that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is evolving from a shipping problem into a broader food system crisis. Underlining the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint for oil, gas, fertilisers, and key agricultural inputs. While current food markets remain relatively stable due to sufficient stocks, he warned that this situation may change quickly as supply constraints begin to affect future production cycles. He outlined a three-stage response, calling for immediate measures to stabilize markets and protect vulnerable populations, followed by support to farmers and diversification of supply in the medium term, and longer-term investments in resilient food systems, infrastructure, and energy transition. For a deeper analysis, you can read the full FAO report on the Global Agrifood implications of the conflict in the Middle East here.

Building on this, James Thurlow, Director of Foresight and policy modelling at IFPRI presented new country-level modelling on the likely impacts of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, focusing on growth, poverty, and food security. He stressed that while fuel and fertilizer prices have risen sharply, major food crop prices have so far remained relatively stable, meaning the most severe food security effects may still lie ahead.

Here are some of the shared insights:

• Impacts emerging but not yet fully visible: Fuel and fertilizer prices have risen sharply, but major food prices have not yet followed, suggesting stronger effects may still come.
• High exposure of many countries: Import-dependent countries are particularly vulnerable, as global price shocks are quickly transmitted into domestic economies.
• Different drivers of impact:

1. Fuel prices are currently driving increases in poverty.
2. Fertilizer prices are likely to drive future food insecurity through reduced agricultural

• Poverty and hunger expected to rise: Even small percentage increases translate into millions of additional people falling into poverty and undernourishment.
• Impacts vary significantly across countries: Some oil-exporting countries may benefit, while others face strong negative effects, highlighting the need for targeted responses.
• Less severe than Ukraine, for now: Current impacts appear smaller than during the Ukraine crisis, but the situation could worsen if disruptions persist.
• Biggest risks lie ahead: Effects may intensify in upcoming cropping seasons, as fertilizer procurement and planting decisions take effect.
• Uncertainty remains high: Potential non-linear effects (e.g. farmers unable to afford fertilizer) and compounding shocks (e.g. climate events) could significantly worsen outcomes.
• Need for better crisis management: Governments require stronger tools to adapt policies in real time and balance short-term crisis response with long-term development goals.

Compared to previous crises, such as the war in Ukraine, the current situation may be less severe so far—but still firmly within the range of major global shocks. Much will depend on how fertiliser markets evolve and whether disruptions persist into future growing seasons. He therefore called for more targeted responses, continued monitoring, and scenario analysis that captures both worsening risks and compounding shocks.

From learned experiences to shared insights

Learning from past shocks: building resilience

Reflecting on these risks, Bart de Steenhuijsen Piters, Senior Researcher on Food Systems and Food and Nutrition Security at WUR brought the discussion to the question: what have we learned from past disruptions? Highlighting that food systems have become highly efficient, but often at the expense of resilience. Bart shared four core capacities considered as essential for more resilient systems: the ability to act (agency), to absorb shocks (buffering), to stay connected, and to maintain diversity. Strengthening these capacities may require rethinking current approaches and accepting trade-offs between efficiency and resilience: both at local and global levels.

From chokepoints to cascading effects

Laura Birkman, Director of Climate, Water and Food Security at the HCSS, further unpacked the role of the Strait of Hormuz as a “cascading chokepoint,” where disruptions spread across interconnected systems. Rather than a single shock, the current crisis triggers a chain reaction: from energy to fertilisers to food systems. She highlighted that the impacts are highly uneven: countries that are heavily import-dependent and water-scarce, particularly in parts of the Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa, face the greatest risks, as they are exposed both to rising input costs and increasing food import bills. Crucially, the shock does not occur in a vacuum but compounds existing vulnerabilities such as climate stress, political fragility, and pre-existing food insecurity.

The severity of the crisis depends less on the size of the shock itself and more on where it lands, calling for a more integrated approach that links food security with energy security, trade resilience, and geopolitical risk management, and highlighting the need to shift from efficiency-driven systems towards more resilient and diversified food systems.

Responses on the ground

Fred Gyasi, Team Lead for Market Information and Intelligence at IFDC, illustrated how these dynamics are already playing out in Africa where rapid increases in fertilizer prices and availability constraints are happening. While the continent uses relatively small volumes of fertiliser globally, its heavy reliance on imports (often timed closely to planting seasons) and low baseline use makes it particularly vulnerable.

Early signals show rising fertiliser prices beginning to affect local markets, with more significant impacts expected as new, more expensive supplies enter the system. Drawing lessons from the Ukraine crisis, there is now a stronger focus on coordinated, data-driven responses. Regional organisations and partners are with countries to monitor market developments, identify priority interventions, and support decision-making, including through regional coordination and engagement with ministries of agriculture and finance. Specifically, IFDC underlined that beyond analysis, the situation requires immediate, practical action on the ground, with a strong focus on targeting support efficiently and strengthening coordination to mitigate impacts on production and food security.

Diversification and new partnerships

Finally, Koen Dekeyser, Policy Analyst at ECDPM highlighted the structural vulnerabilities in global fertilizer systems and the need to rethink supply dependencies in both Africa and Europe. Both Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe face vulnerabilities linked to fertiliser production and energy dependence, albeit in different ways. This has sparked renewed interest in diversifying supply chains and investing in alternative production methods, including green fertilisers.

At the same time, these shifts open up opportunities for new partnerships: particularly between regions with complementary strengths. However, these transitions should require careful balancing of economic, environmental, and geopolitical considerations.

Overall, ECDPM emphasised that the crisis is not only a short-term disruption, but also a strategic moment to rethink global fertilizer supply chains, accelerate diversification, and align economic, political, and sustainability objectives in future partnerships.

Connecting the dots towards shared pathways

Across all contributions, a common thread emerged: food security can no longer be addressed in isolation. It is deeply intertwined with energy systems, global trade, and geopolitical dynamics. As a result, responses must also be more integrated, coordinated, and forward-looking.

Participants reflected on the importance of:

• strengthening monitoring and early warning systems,

• ensuring access to fertilisers and finance for farmers,

• avoiding export restrictions that could amplify shocks, and

• investing in more resilient and diversified food systems.

At the same time, the discussion underscored both the high level of uncertainty and the urgency for action, with participants noting that current market reactions are influenced not only by physical disruptions but also by financial speculation and geopolitical expectations. It was highlighted that global food systems are increasingly shaped by a combination of physical supply chains and financial markets, which can amplify price volatility even before material shortages fully emerge. There was a strong call to focus on practical next steps, including scenario planning (both optimistic and pessimistic), closer monitoring of developments, and identifying actionable responses at country and regional levels. Finally, the discussion emphasized the importance of continuing the exchange and insights that emerge, deepening analysis on vulnerable regions and pathways of impact, and moving towards coordinated, concrete actions to strengthen resilience and mitigate risks.

Looking ahead

Ivo Demmers closed this session with a shared recognition of the complexity and uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East. While many impacts are still unfolding, there is a clear need to stay engaged, informed, and connected as a community.

This conversation marked a first step. Building on the insights shared, there is strong interest in continuing the dialogue: through follow-up sessions, deeper dives into specific themes, and ongoing exchange of data and experiences in the weeks ahead.